* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 57 64 65 65 66 67 70 69 72 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 57 64 65 65 66 67 70 69 72 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 48 51 56 60 61 63 67 72 79 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 2 5 11 14 15 8 9 4 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 154 268 299 298 255 263 248 280 257 331 314 6 339 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 152 152 152 150 151 151 150 155 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 151 149 149 148 144 143 141 138 142 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 44 44 46 45 47 47 49 55 58 59 63 62 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 11 7 5 5 4 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -4 7 8 0 7 2 -12 -40 -20 -33 1 200 MB DIV 0 25 30 12 13 19 3 8 20 9 38 2 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 3 4 5 0 -9 0 LAND (KM) 313 314 371 439 409 161 34 0 156 300 317 341 124 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.2 16.6 17.9 19.3 21.2 22.6 23.7 24.9 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 59.2 60.4 61.5 62.5 63.4 65.5 67.5 69.2 70.9 72.7 74.6 76.7 78.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 49 46 42 62 77 63 46 47 87 68 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 20. 20. 21. 22. 25. 24. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 59.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 29.9% 19.4% 13.7% 12.1% 21.0% 18.3% 20.4% Logistic: 7.5% 29.4% 28.6% 23.4% 8.7% 19.1% 12.2% 17.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.5% 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% Consensus: 5.2% 21.6% 18.2% 12.4% 7.0% 14.1% 10.6% 12.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 54 57 64 65 65 66 67 70 69 72 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 54 61 62 62 63 64 67 66 69 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 55 56 56 57 58 61 60 63 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 46 46 47 48 51 50 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT