* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062019 08/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 38 41 47 45 39 29 27 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 38 41 47 45 39 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 38 38 35 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 13 10 13 8 22 40 45 51 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -8 -6 -4 -2 1 2 2 -4 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 325 336 349 315 335 247 236 221 231 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.7 27.0 24.0 18.9 16.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 143 143 143 135 127 101 80 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 116 115 116 120 116 111 89 73 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 59 61 60 59 54 48 44 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -22 -18 -10 -19 1 -8 -9 -14 -22 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 0 4 31 15 -2 20 23 28 46 47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 1 0 0 4 2 13 14 17 20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 544 546 549 531 512 437 452 404 212 1 -13 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.5 31.6 31.9 32.1 33.3 35.5 38.4 41.6 45.0 48.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.1 72.0 72.0 72.0 71.9 70.9 68.4 65.3 61.9 58.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 4 9 15 19 20 21 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 23 22 23 27 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. -7. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 17. 15. 9. -1. -3. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.4 72.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062019 SIX 08/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.6% 11.2% 8.5% 5.8% 9.3% 13.1% 13.8% Logistic: 1.7% 3.5% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.4% 4.9% 3.0% 2.0% 3.4% 4.7% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062019 SIX 08/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062019 SIX 08/27/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 36 38 41 47 45 39 30 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 36 39 45 43 37 28 28 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 34 40 38 32 23 23 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 32 30 24 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT