* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 54 58 62 64 65 67 68 69 71 73 V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 54 58 62 57 61 63 64 65 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 51 54 59 55 59 61 65 70 77 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 1 4 6 9 14 9 13 5 6 4 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 3 -4 0 -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 281 311 7 237 247 253 251 279 259 243 310 336 326 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 152 152 151 152 152 149 151 156 156 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 153 151 150 148 148 145 139 141 144 143 145 144 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 45 46 45 45 45 47 51 57 59 63 63 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 6 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 9 9 6 9 6 3 -27 -30 -31 4 -5 200 MB DIV 28 28 18 15 37 30 -1 22 23 19 28 16 25 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 0 2 2 5 7 4 7 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 291 341 411 416 296 102 -20 30 201 296 346 219 11 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.1 15.7 17.0 18.5 20.0 21.6 23.1 24.5 25.8 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.4 62.5 63.5 64.5 66.6 68.6 70.2 71.9 73.8 75.9 78.0 80.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 48 46 42 43 76 72 51 40 75 68 54 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. 24. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.3 60.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.98 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 33.7% 22.0% 11.6% 0.0% 25.8% 34.7% 23.3% Logistic: 8.4% 33.5% 32.2% 25.2% 8.4% 16.2% 12.9% 14.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 10.8% 6.7% 0.2% 0.3% 3.2% 1.7% 0.3% Consensus: 5.7% 26.0% 20.3% 12.3% 2.9% 15.1% 16.4% 12.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 51 54 58 62 57 61 63 64 65 67 68 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 55 59 54 58 60 61 62 64 65 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 52 47 51 53 54 55 57 58 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 43 38 42 44 45 46 48 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT