* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 55 57 60 63 67 71 75 78 83 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 55 54 57 60 64 68 72 75 80 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 49 51 51 54 58 65 74 84 92 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 8 11 12 14 8 10 3 9 2 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 2 -3 0 -4 -3 -5 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 170 202 217 244 251 256 288 257 223 273 38 297 230 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 152 147 152 152 157 156 159 166 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 147 148 147 139 141 141 144 141 143 147 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 45 45 51 57 60 63 64 70 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 -8 -6 -1 -1 -9 -31 -37 -34 10 7 27 200 MB DIV 22 42 40 16 4 1 33 10 30 26 30 27 46 700-850 TADV 1 0 6 5 7 4 6 1 4 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 477 396 261 137 44 87 123 278 465 523 322 116 2 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 19.2 20.7 22.3 24.2 25.6 26.5 27.6 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.1 64.1 65.1 66.2 67.9 69.4 70.9 72.5 74.5 76.9 79.1 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 12 11 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 41 42 61 80 62 59 45 52 67 50 50 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 62.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 37.8% 26.0% 16.6% 14.5% 22.1% 22.3% 21.7% Logistic: 17.7% 32.1% 30.1% 27.5% 10.6% 21.0% 15.6% 21.4% Bayesian: 5.1% 11.9% 25.0% 2.0% 1.3% 6.3% 1.8% 0.4% Consensus: 10.4% 27.3% 27.1% 15.4% 8.8% 16.5% 13.2% 14.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 53 55 54 57 60 64 68 72 75 80 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 50 53 56 60 64 68 71 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 44 47 50 54 58 62 65 70 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 36 39 42 46 50 54 57 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT