* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 55 57 62 67 71 77 81 86 87 92 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 55 53 58 63 67 73 77 82 83 70 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 43 52 57 63 73 84 94 98 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 9 12 9 7 6 5 8 10 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 1 -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 188 218 243 244 231 249 216 285 244 321 271 284 250 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 152 149 152 154 154 155 157 159 162 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 148 147 141 143 143 141 140 141 141 142 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 47 49 55 60 60 63 64 73 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 9 9 10 10 13 15 19 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -10 -1 -1 -16 -20 -43 -28 -24 24 0 32 200 MB DIV 39 36 7 5 1 10 23 16 46 16 51 7 72 700-850 TADV 0 4 2 4 4 11 3 2 3 -4 4 4 7 LAND (KM) 419 283 147 15 11 152 245 422 568 558 310 116 -29 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.6 20.2 21.9 23.6 25.3 26.5 27.4 28.1 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.7 63.8 64.8 65.8 66.8 68.1 69.7 71.2 72.6 74.5 77.0 79.3 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 58 78 69 75 57 46 44 62 54 50 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -1. 1. 5. 6. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 22. 26. 32. 36. 41. 42. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 62.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 27.2% 16.7% 13.1% 11.4% 16.8% 24.5% 22.8% Logistic: 6.9% 26.3% 21.4% 16.1% 6.6% 15.6% 18.7% 23.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 8.2% 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 2.2% 6.8% 0.4% Consensus: 5.2% 20.6% 14.2% 9.8% 6.1% 11.5% 16.7% 15.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 52 55 53 58 63 67 73 77 82 83 70 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 49 54 59 63 69 73 78 79 66 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 42 47 52 56 62 66 71 72 59 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 38 43 47 53 57 62 63 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT