* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 62 66 72 77 82 87 89 91 93 90 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 59 62 68 73 78 84 86 87 89 59 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 50 58 63 69 79 90 99 103 102 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 11 12 7 8 2 6 5 14 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 0 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 204 223 242 229 238 227 243 137 299 3 291 280 265 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 149 149 154 154 155 155 158 158 155 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 149 143 142 144 141 141 140 140 139 136 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 47 51 56 58 61 64 71 70 75 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 16 17 20 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 3 0 -4 -20 -34 -39 -30 11 6 36 14 200 MB DIV 30 12 14 3 5 19 28 40 40 46 10 51 22 700-850 TADV 2 0 4 7 8 6 0 6 -1 -1 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 311 178 46 6 102 206 360 518 596 426 231 68 -84 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.4 21.3 23.0 24.5 26.1 27.1 27.7 28.4 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.6 65.6 66.5 67.4 68.9 70.4 71.8 73.8 75.8 77.9 79.9 82.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 53 78 71 67 66 48 47 60 56 52 41 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 22. 27. 32. 37. 39. 41. 43. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.4 63.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.61 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 40.1% 27.7% 15.0% 0.0% 32.7% 39.5% 33.9% Logistic: 11.9% 30.1% 24.3% 18.6% 8.5% 22.4% 23.4% 26.9% Bayesian: 3.3% 23.2% 16.5% 1.1% 0.7% 8.5% 2.9% 0.5% Consensus: 9.0% 31.1% 22.8% 11.6% 3.1% 21.2% 21.9% 20.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 59 59 62 68 73 78 84 86 87 89 59 18HR AGO 50 49 54 54 57 63 68 73 79 81 82 84 54 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 49 55 60 65 71 73 74 76 46 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 54 59 65 67 68 70 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT