* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 66 69 75 81 87 89 91 92 95 93 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 66 69 75 81 87 89 91 92 95 93 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 63 66 72 80 90 99 104 104 102 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 11 9 6 2 6 12 9 12 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 -4 -1 -4 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 240 251 230 236 246 192 296 309 339 286 308 269 270 SST (C) 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 154 154 154 156 157 157 157 157 157 158 164 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 147 146 146 147 146 143 140 140 138 136 139 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 49 52 58 59 62 63 69 66 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 8 9 10 10 11 13 15 17 20 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -8 -11 -25 -29 -31 -49 -31 -29 8 -7 13 -1 200 MB DIV 6 6 -5 -2 0 39 21 41 23 23 9 44 2 700-850 TADV 2 6 6 6 5 1 2 0 -7 1 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 215 98 27 111 211 319 486 631 637 426 270 147 85 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.5 20.4 22.3 24.1 25.5 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.6 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.1 64.9 65.7 66.4 67.2 68.6 70.0 71.6 73.7 75.8 77.6 79.1 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 65 72 78 83 54 52 41 58 55 52 72 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 26. 32. 34. 36. 37. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.1 64.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.45 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.56 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 436.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 41.8% 29.8% 20.7% 0.0% 44.0% 38.6% 24.6% Logistic: 10.4% 24.7% 18.2% 12.8% 6.6% 22.8% 21.5% 26.6% Bayesian: 3.1% 30.0% 12.5% 1.2% 0.8% 7.6% 1.0% 0.4% Consensus: 9.1% 32.2% 20.2% 11.6% 2.5% 24.8% 20.4% 17.2% DTOPS: 9.0% 20.0% 13.0% 6.0% 3.0% 4.0% 6.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 66 69 75 81 87 89 91 92 95 93 18HR AGO 55 54 57 61 64 70 76 82 84 86 87 90 88 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 58 64 70 76 78 80 81 84 82 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 54 60 66 68 70 71 74 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT