* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 78 81 88 93 97 98 98 101 98 98 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 78 81 88 93 97 98 98 101 98 98 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 75 78 81 89 95 104 109 108 107 105 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 11 9 7 9 5 9 6 10 6 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 249 224 228 222 197 269 347 308 352 299 306 272 260 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 155 157 159 157 161 155 155 156 161 158 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 146 147 148 144 146 139 135 135 137 133 124 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 44 48 49 51 54 57 57 58 63 63 66 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 15 18 19 23 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -16 -31 -38 -39 -37 -28 -30 -1 -14 10 2 17 200 MB DIV -3 3 22 11 29 27 48 10 30 4 36 18 19 700-850 TADV 4 6 4 6 7 0 4 -7 0 0 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 63 82 178 278 324 461 622 662 506 334 189 76 39 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.2 20.1 21.0 21.9 23.8 25.4 26.5 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.1 65.8 66.4 67.1 67.8 69.2 70.9 73.1 75.0 76.9 78.6 79.9 80.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 66 71 81 84 73 48 53 51 54 52 63 47 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 23. 28. 32. 33. 33. 36. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.3 65.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.93 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 488.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.5% 47.2% 36.5% 33.1% 29.2% 32.1% 31.4% 22.1% Logistic: 10.8% 30.7% 21.5% 17.3% 8.8% 32.3% 28.1% 32.8% Bayesian: 7.4% 36.4% 10.0% 1.5% 0.6% 5.4% 3.0% 0.3% Consensus: 15.2% 38.1% 22.7% 17.3% 12.9% 23.3% 20.8% 18.4% DTOPS: 22.0% 14.0% 7.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 8( 14) 11( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 74 78 81 88 93 97 98 98 101 98 98 18HR AGO 65 64 68 72 75 82 87 91 92 92 95 92 92 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 68 75 80 84 85 85 88 85 85 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 65 70 74 75 75 78 75 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT