* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 86 88 94 98 101 101 104 104 105 101 V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 86 88 94 98 101 101 104 104 61 38 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 86 89 95 101 105 108 110 110 65 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 6 9 8 6 10 5 8 3 9 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -4 -4 -5 -2 -4 -2 -3 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 225 214 180 185 223 270 299 324 314 301 269 226 242 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.4 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 159 159 160 155 157 160 163 157 167 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 148 146 144 144 138 138 140 141 135 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 51 52 55 56 55 58 58 62 64 70 70 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 15 16 17 20 22 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -34 -37 -33 -38 -30 -31 -13 -15 9 11 30 13 200 MB DIV 26 32 50 42 20 27 22 31 15 40 24 34 38 700-850 TADV 8 5 3 1 1 4 -2 0 -2 1 -1 2 2 LAND (KM) 167 278 343 385 452 590 639 528 338 175 25 -79 -49 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.7 25.1 26.1 26.6 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.0 67.6 68.4 69.1 70.7 72.7 74.8 76.7 78.5 80.2 81.4 82.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 81 84 73 44 47 56 43 58 55 56 41 39 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 19. 23. 26. 26. 29. 29. 30. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.0 66.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 25.0% 17.1% 13.5% 12.0% 13.0% 15.8% 19.0% Logistic: 7.5% 27.3% 18.8% 15.2% 7.3% 18.1% 15.8% 17.6% Bayesian: 5.5% 10.6% 3.5% 0.4% 0.2% 3.7% 4.1% 0.2% Consensus: 9.9% 21.0% 13.1% 9.7% 6.5% 11.6% 11.9% 12.3% DTOPS: 19.0% 35.0% 28.0% 18.0% 10.0% 6.0% 9.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 11( 22) 16( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 4( 5) 7( 12) 3( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 82 86 88 94 98 101 101 104 104 61 38 18HR AGO 75 74 78 82 84 90 94 97 97 100 100 57 34 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 77 83 87 90 90 93 93 50 27 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 73 77 80 80 83 83 40 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT