* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 85 89 94 97 102 102 103 105 104 100 V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 85 89 94 97 102 102 103 105 67 41 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 81 84 87 94 100 104 106 106 105 69 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 6 7 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 220 188 196 237 273 284 318 302 319 264 294 246 270 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 161 161 159 155 160 162 161 160 158 165 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 148 147 143 138 142 142 140 137 134 139 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 57 57 59 60 63 63 69 65 67 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 11 13 14 15 18 19 21 23 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -41 -36 -40 -45 -29 -29 5 -7 18 0 24 -7 200 MB DIV 33 55 44 12 12 26 10 28 0 27 11 33 12 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 0 1 -2 -4 0 -2 0 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 278 341 397 455 533 656 640 466 289 144 32 -52 -81 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.7 26.4 26.8 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.5 68.2 68.9 69.7 71.4 73.4 75.4 77.2 78.8 80.0 81.0 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 85 74 44 45 52 44 54 55 54 57 48 41 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 8. 10. 13. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 22. 27. 27. 28. 30. 29. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.0 66.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 23.3% 16.6% 13.3% 12.1% 13.0% 15.5% 17.6% Logistic: 4.7% 23.5% 14.5% 9.5% 5.4% 17.9% 14.4% 14.2% Bayesian: 2.5% 7.8% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 2.6% 0.2% Consensus: 6.2% 18.2% 11.0% 7.7% 5.9% 10.9% 10.8% 10.7% DTOPS: 11.0% 25.0% 17.0% 8.0% 4.0% 12.0% 8.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 11( 22) 16( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 82 85 89 94 97 102 102 103 105 67 41 18HR AGO 75 74 78 81 85 90 93 98 98 99 101 63 37 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 78 83 86 91 91 92 94 56 30 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 74 77 82 82 83 85 47 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT