* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 87 90 95 97 101 102 104 104 99 99 V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 87 90 95 97 101 102 104 104 60 39 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 79 83 88 94 101 106 107 107 103 61 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 6 6 12 10 16 6 12 9 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -4 -6 -3 -4 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 198 190 241 290 311 300 336 310 290 270 260 270 260 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 160 159 160 153 161 161 161 164 158 163 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 146 143 143 136 142 140 139 140 133 136 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 56 58 57 59 60 65 64 64 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 14 15 16 17 20 22 24 26 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -38 -39 -39 -28 -34 -5 -3 12 -1 15 -3 12 200 MB DIV 50 40 22 8 42 17 28 3 17 13 20 15 27 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 2 -1 -7 -3 -1 0 0 -1 4 LAND (KM) 363 411 480 545 614 659 576 406 240 106 8 -54 -88 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.0 23.9 24.6 25.3 26.1 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 68.1 68.8 69.6 70.4 72.3 74.3 76.0 77.7 79.2 80.3 81.1 81.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 72 44 44 52 57 40 60 55 52 60 42 39 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 20. 22. 26. 27. 29. 29. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.1 67.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 36.0% 26.0% 14.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 12( 23) 17( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 4( 6) 4( 10) 8( 17) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 82 87 90 95 97 101 102 104 104 60 39 18HR AGO 75 74 78 83 86 91 93 97 98 100 100 56 35 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 79 84 86 90 91 93 93 49 28 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 73 75 79 80 82 82 38 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT