* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 87 91 94 97 102 102 105 102 105 102 102 V (KT) LAND 80 83 87 91 94 97 102 102 105 102 92 58 37 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 86 89 92 99 106 108 107 105 102 57 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 3 8 12 12 14 11 11 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -6 -2 -4 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 200 232 250 239 275 334 298 320 287 291 268 289 272 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 160 156 158 163 165 166 163 164 165 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 144 143 139 140 143 144 143 137 137 139 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 58 58 58 64 61 68 65 65 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 16 17 20 21 23 22 27 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -46 -44 -31 -22 -23 9 -1 24 -5 17 -14 11 200 MB DIV 36 30 17 52 28 13 14 -4 27 -4 26 9 63 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 0 -6 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 2 LAND (KM) 397 448 523 575 633 613 498 329 149 49 -3 -52 -59 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.6 24.4 25.0 25.5 26.1 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 68.8 69.6 70.5 71.3 73.3 75.1 76.8 78.6 79.7 80.3 81.0 81.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 51 57 46 51 57 54 55 55 47 41 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 10. 15. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 22. 22. 25. 22. 26. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.8 68.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.33 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 24.8% 18.3% 13.7% 12.2% 12.6% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 24.7% 15.7% 8.8% 5.1% 13.3% 10.7% 6.8% Bayesian: 3.6% 17.9% 6.8% 1.6% 0.8% 3.2% 2.5% 0.1% Consensus: 6.6% 22.5% 13.6% 8.0% 6.0% 9.7% 9.2% 2.3% DTOPS: 21.0% 36.0% 28.0% 14.0% 9.0% 6.0% 8.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 16( 30) 20( 44) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 3( 7) 7( 13) 9( 21) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 87 91 94 97 102 102 105 102 92 58 37 18HR AGO 80 79 83 87 90 93 98 98 101 98 88 54 33 12HR AGO 80 77 76 80 83 86 91 91 94 91 81 47 26 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 73 76 81 81 84 81 71 37 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 66 71 71 74 71 61 27 DIS IN 12HR 80 83 87 78 72 68 73 73 76 73 63 29 DIS