* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 99 102 104 107 109 113 112 112 111 106 103 V (KT) LAND 90 95 99 102 104 107 109 113 112 112 91 55 37 V (KT) LGEM 90 96 100 103 105 107 113 119 116 113 93 56 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 4 8 11 5 10 6 11 7 12 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 4 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 228 230 237 249 279 320 309 327 302 286 296 299 301 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.5 29.7 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.8 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 160 159 153 160 163 168 165 167 168 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 144 142 135 140 143 145 140 141 147 153 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 59 57 59 60 63 61 62 59 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 15 16 17 19 23 24 27 29 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -41 -33 -25 -34 -11 4 21 6 14 6 9 -12 200 MB DIV 23 21 44 28 16 14 15 25 -7 19 11 20 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 -1 -2 0 -3 0 0 2 0 9 LAND (KM) 437 496 561 606 626 582 442 271 170 70 -19 -67 -75 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.5 70.2 71.2 72.2 73.9 75.7 77.4 78.4 79.4 80.3 80.9 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 50 56 48 38 59 53 57 54 57 52 51 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 10. 14. 16. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. 23. 22. 22. 21. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 23.5 68.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 23.0% 11.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 21( 30) 26( 49) 27( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 13( 17) 9( 25) 16( 37) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 95 99 102 104 107 109 113 112 112 91 55 37 18HR AGO 90 89 93 96 98 101 103 107 106 106 85 49 31 12HR AGO 90 87 86 89 91 94 96 100 99 99 78 42 24 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 82 85 87 91 90 90 69 33 15 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 74 76 80 79 79 58 22 DIS IN 6HR 90 95 86 80 77 77 79 83 82 82 61 25 DIS IN 12HR 90 95 99 90 84 80 82 86 85 85 64 28 DIS