* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 102 103 104 102 105 108 107 108 103 104 101 V (KT) LAND 95 99 102 103 104 102 105 108 107 108 83 52 36 V (KT) LGEM 95 100 103 105 105 106 109 111 110 110 87 54 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 12 11 10 11 9 10 9 13 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 -1 1 0 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 233 234 247 294 322 310 336 314 314 307 306 276 299 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 153 154 156 159 162 169 169 168 167 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 138 135 136 136 138 139 144 146 145 142 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 56 57 61 60 64 62 65 59 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 17 18 17 21 24 25 27 26 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -31 -21 -36 -27 0 6 28 1 13 0 13 -21 200 MB DIV 28 56 37 11 4 0 -6 16 -13 15 0 36 21 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 0 -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 1 5 10 LAND (KM) 503 550 600 625 615 562 391 260 142 51 -19 -51 -73 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.6 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 70.2 71.0 71.9 72.8 74.5 76.2 77.5 78.7 79.6 80.3 80.9 81.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 40 34 39 56 56 55 57 58 52 46 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 8. 9. 12. 10. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 10. 13. 12. 13. 8. 9. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 24.2 69.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.14 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 509.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.3% 28.5% 24.1% 17.0% 13.5% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.1% 36.9% 26.9% 14.9% 9.2% 22.5% 11.3% 8.0% Bayesian: 21.5% 44.4% 15.0% 4.6% 1.9% 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 20.0% 36.6% 22.0% 12.2% 8.2% 12.7% 3.9% 2.7% DTOPS: 22.0% 19.0% 15.0% 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 24( 37) 26( 53) 24( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 10( 15) 12( 25) 18( 38) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 99 102 103 104 102 105 108 107 108 83 52 36 18HR AGO 95 94 97 98 99 97 100 103 102 103 78 47 31 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 93 91 94 97 96 97 72 41 25 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 84 87 90 89 90 65 34 18 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 74 77 80 79 80 55 24 DIS IN 6HR 95 99 90 84 81 78 81 84 83 84 59 28 DIS IN 12HR 95 99 102 93 87 83 86 89 88 89 64 33 17