* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 105 106 109 110 109 112 113 113 111 107 106 V (KT) LAND 100 104 105 106 109 110 109 112 113 113 64 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 100 103 105 107 108 110 112 116 116 115 67 41 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 11 11 8 11 6 9 6 12 10 13 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 238 251 294 319 336 310 333 299 319 303 307 298 224 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 153 154 154 157 160 165 169 169 169 170 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 134 136 135 137 138 141 147 146 148 145 138 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 58 59 56 57 57 58 62 61 63 61 62 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 19 22 22 26 28 31 31 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -22 -37 -27 -13 -7 11 4 16 8 17 -1 4 200 MB DIV 45 35 14 13 23 2 22 -3 28 8 25 28 60 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 -2 -3 0 -2 0 -2 -1 2 5 3 LAND (KM) 560 606 639 615 599 470 319 190 101 11 -63 -78 -43 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.3 28.2 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 70.3 71.1 71.9 72.8 73.7 75.4 76.9 78.2 79.1 80.0 80.9 81.4 81.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 39 34 39 51 54 58 54 60 54 50 42 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -16. -20. -23. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 13. 16. 16. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 12. 13. 13. 11. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.8 70.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.08 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 520.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 22.0% 16.6% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.8% 28.1% 19.2% 14.2% 10.4% 18.1% 12.7% 4.7% Bayesian: 26.6% 45.9% 18.8% 8.2% 3.9% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 19.1% 32.0% 18.2% 11.6% 4.8% 7.4% 4.3% 1.6% DTOPS: 23.0% 17.0% 13.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/30/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 28( 59) 29( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 10( 20) 22( 38) 27( 54) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 105 106 109 110 109 112 113 113 64 40 32 18HR AGO 100 99 100 101 104 105 104 107 108 108 59 35 27 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 100 101 100 103 104 104 55 31 23 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 93 94 93 96 97 97 48 24 16 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 82 81 84 85 85 36 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 85 84 87 88 88 39 15 DIS IN 12HR 100 104 105 96 90 86 85 88 89 89 40 16 DIS