* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/31/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 116 115 114 111 112 109 111 112 110 109 113 V (KT) LAND 115 118 116 115 114 111 112 109 111 112 83 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 115 119 119 117 115 114 112 112 112 111 83 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 10 10 13 10 13 11 15 15 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -3 -1 -3 0 0 0 -5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 266 298 316 337 321 330 302 310 297 287 274 271 216 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.0 29.5 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 154 156 161 160 165 168 167 158 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 134 134 135 139 135 139 145 141 134 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 59 61 61 65 63 64 58 59 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 18 20 21 25 25 28 31 33 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -36 -31 -9 -3 2 27 0 30 10 26 6 43 200 MB DIV 29 30 11 34 12 0 25 5 25 4 30 26 72 700-850 TADV 4 1 -4 -5 0 -3 -1 0 0 2 5 6 2 LAND (KM) 611 642 640 625 558 397 267 178 101 34 -26 -23 4 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 28.0 29.2 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 72.0 72.9 73.7 74.5 76.1 77.4 78.3 79.1 79.9 80.8 81.3 81.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 34 41 52 56 57 53 55 64 55 38 33 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -21. -28. -34. -39. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 16. 17. 17. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. -3. -6. -4. -3. -5. -6. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 25.3 71.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 570.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.3% 23.8% 15.1% 9.9% 6.8% 8.8% 6.5% 1.8% Bayesian: 13.7% 19.3% 5.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.7% 14.4% 6.8% 3.6% 2.4% 3.1% 2.2% 0.6% DTOPS: 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 29( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 13( 26) 41( 56) 23( 66) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 118 116 115 114 111 112 109 111 112 83 53 55 18HR AGO 115 114 112 111 110 107 108 105 107 108 79 49 51 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 109 106 107 104 106 107 78 48 50 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 101 102 99 101 102 73 43 45 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 94 91 93 94 65 35 37 IN 6HR 115 118 109 103 100 98 99 96 98 99 70 40 42 IN 12HR 115 118 116 107 101 97 98 95 97 98 69 39 41