* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/31/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 122 120 118 115 116 113 115 114 114 110 109 V (KT) LAND 120 122 122 120 118 115 116 113 115 114 77 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 120 123 123 121 120 118 117 115 118 115 76 51 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 6 12 7 11 9 14 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 0 0 -3 0 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 290 309 327 318 313 318 293 314 274 246 253 194 224 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 154 157 157 160 160 167 169 157 155 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 135 136 136 137 134 140 149 133 132 130 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -50.7 -50.2 -49.4 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 60 59 64 62 64 60 58 54 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 18 20 21 22 26 26 31 32 36 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -30 -8 3 -4 22 7 28 19 33 11 32 57 200 MB DIV 27 10 27 16 9 27 12 29 18 46 22 62 37 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -5 0 1 -2 -2 0 1 3 11 1 0 LAND (KM) 630 608 600 536 460 308 218 168 73 16 -22 -15 4 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.9 28.9 30.2 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 73.1 74.0 74.8 75.5 77.0 77.9 78.4 79.4 80.3 81.2 81.5 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 5 3 4 5 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 43 54 56 54 56 52 55 64 39 31 39 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -14. -24. -32. -39. -45. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 13. 15. 20. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -4. -7. -5. -6. -6. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 25.7 72.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 610.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 34( 56) 32( 70) 31( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 33( 43) 41( 66) 32( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 122 122 120 118 115 116 113 115 114 77 52 52 18HR AGO 120 119 119 117 115 112 113 110 112 111 74 49 49 12HR AGO 120 117 116 114 112 109 110 107 109 108 71 46 46 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 108 105 106 103 105 104 67 42 42 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 98 99 96 98 97 60 35 35 IN 6HR 120 122 113 107 104 103 104 101 103 102 65 40 40 IN 12HR 120 122 122 113 107 103 104 101 103 102 65 40 40