* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/31/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 125 123 121 120 117 118 118 114 112 108 104 V (KT) LAND 125 125 125 123 121 120 117 118 118 114 112 108 87 V (KT) LGEM 125 126 124 122 121 121 121 121 117 105 96 92 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 10 11 8 11 10 12 12 10 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 1 -1 0 -1 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 311 330 322 302 327 288 305 277 267 234 219 197 231 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.3 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 157 162 169 168 169 155 143 145 142 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 135 136 140 145 142 145 131 121 122 119 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.0 -50.3 -49.8 -49.2 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 7 9 5 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 59 61 67 65 65 60 58 53 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 21 22 22 25 27 30 33 34 36 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -7 9 -2 9 26 13 31 13 37 25 45 99 200 MB DIV 18 34 22 8 2 36 20 38 25 49 43 42 48 700-850 TADV -2 -5 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 4 6 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 606 595 511 435 360 228 178 111 57 56 68 61 -14 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.2 28.0 29.0 30.1 31.4 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 74.0 75.0 75.8 76.5 77.8 78.3 79.0 79.9 80.3 80.6 80.6 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 52 55 58 62 70 77 78 48 29 36 32 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -15. -26. -35. -44. -52. -56. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. 1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 12. 16. 17. 19. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -7. -7. -11. -13. -17. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 25.9 73.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 638.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 38( 62) 34( 75) 33( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 26 51( 64) 34( 76) 30( 83) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 125 125 123 121 120 117 118 118 114 112 108 87 18HR AGO 125 124 124 122 120 119 116 117 117 113 111 107 86 12HR AGO 125 122 121 119 117 116 113 114 114 110 108 104 83 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 113 112 109 110 110 106 104 100 79 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 105 102 103 103 99 97 93 72 IN 6HR 125 125 116 110 107 107 104 105 105 101 99 95 74 IN 12HR 125 125 125 116 110 106 103 104 104 100 98 94 73