* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/31/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 127 124 122 119 122 120 121 119 116 111 109 V (KT) LAND 130 129 127 124 122 119 122 120 121 119 116 111 109 V (KT) LGEM 130 129 126 123 122 122 122 117 111 107 102 95 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 11 8 11 8 14 8 16 13 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 330 314 298 306 318 295 309 271 273 243 193 213 198 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 159 165 168 168 159 156 151 146 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 133 138 141 141 141 133 131 129 124 117 117 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.5 -50.0 -49.6 -49.6 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 10 6 4 700-500 MB RH 57 60 58 60 64 64 66 62 62 56 51 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 21 23 22 24 30 30 34 35 37 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR -4 5 -2 9 19 3 26 18 33 1 26 45 90 200 MB DIV 32 26 16 -5 29 12 27 17 38 17 60 17 88 700-850 TADV -5 1 1 0 -2 -1 -2 1 2 8 2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 590 542 470 389 308 238 181 155 127 120 108 32 74 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.4 29.6 31.5 33.0 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.7 75.4 76.2 77.0 77.7 78.3 78.8 79.3 79.9 80.0 79.1 76.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 5 3 3 4 5 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 52 55 56 61 63 68 75 68 59 50 34 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -3. -5. -10. -18. -30. -41. -51. -58. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -4. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 10. 11. 16. 18. 20. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -8. -10. -9. -11. -14. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 26.1 74.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 615.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 41( 66) 34( 78) 33( 85) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 29( 44) 20( 55) 26( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 129 127 124 122 119 122 120 121 119 116 111 109 18HR AGO 130 129 127 124 122 119 122 120 121 119 116 111 109 12HR AGO 130 127 126 123 121 118 121 119 120 118 115 110 108 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 118 115 118 116 117 115 112 107 105 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 108 111 109 110 108 105 100 98 IN 6HR 130 129 120 114 111 106 109 107 108 106 103 98 96 IN 12HR 130 129 127 118 112 108 111 109 110 108 105 100 98