* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 126 124 124 122 122 117 116 117 113 108 107 V (KT) LAND 130 128 126 124 124 122 122 117 116 117 113 108 107 V (KT) LGEM 130 127 124 123 123 126 122 115 112 108 102 96 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 7 8 12 10 13 9 12 21 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -2 -4 -1 -3 -3 -3 -8 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 305 292 320 337 304 318 303 286 233 211 188 191 204 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 156 162 169 168 166 161 157 154 149 139 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 134 139 144 143 138 135 133 130 126 119 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 -49.8 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 10 3 2 700-500 MB RH 61 58 61 64 66 64 68 62 61 54 51 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 23 26 29 32 32 33 37 37 37 40 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 2 10 18 5 30 20 31 3 54 102 82 200 MB DIV 20 14 2 16 32 12 35 3 51 43 46 54 87 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 4 5 -8 -14 LAND (KM) 544 477 411 346 281 208 174 170 160 165 110 67 113 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.8 30.2 31.8 33.3 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.4 76.0 76.6 77.3 78.0 78.4 78.6 79.0 79.6 79.6 78.2 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 5 3 2 4 6 8 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 56 56 59 62 66 72 75 70 66 63 33 20 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -2. -3. -4. -9. -18. -30. -40. -50. -57. -62. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 10. 12. 16. 16. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -13. -14. -12. -17. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 26.2 74.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 563.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 40( 66) 36( 78) 34( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 69 70( 91) 76( 98) 67( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 128 126 124 124 122 122 117 116 117 113 108 107 18HR AGO 130 129 127 125 125 123 123 118 117 118 114 109 108 12HR AGO 130 127 126 124 124 122 122 117 116 117 113 108 107 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 120 118 118 113 112 113 109 104 103 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 109 109 104 103 104 100 95 94 IN 6HR 130 128 119 113 110 110 110 105 104 105 101 96 95 IN 12HR 130 128 126 117 111 107 107 102 101 102 98 93 92