* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 126 125 123 122 122 120 121 120 116 112 109 V (KT) LAND 130 127 126 125 123 122 122 120 121 120 116 112 109 V (KT) LGEM 130 127 126 125 125 126 122 117 113 106 100 95 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 9 12 9 12 9 13 9 19 20 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -5 -5 0 -3 -4 -1 -6 -3 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 295 314 331 308 305 323 292 273 246 188 207 183 209 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.6 29.1 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 160 165 167 168 168 168 160 152 152 145 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 141 141 144 143 140 135 129 127 122 116 118 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -51.3 -50.5 -50.3 -49.8 -49.6 -49.3 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 11 8 7 2 700-500 MB RH 60 61 65 66 64 66 63 62 56 51 43 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 25 26 30 33 34 38 39 39 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 12 19 6 31 18 33 9 26 69 135 127 200 MB DIV 16 13 30 33 13 34 7 27 29 64 46 87 57 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -1 -3 -1 1 1 7 0 -1 6 -6 LAND (KM) 452 386 320 275 229 168 142 140 124 132 86 50 64 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 28.0 29.2 30.5 31.9 33.4 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.6 76.3 76.9 77.3 77.8 78.4 78.7 79.0 79.6 80.0 79.9 78.4 75.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 2 3 5 7 7 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 56 61 63 65 70 78 79 67 53 51 30 19 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -17. -29. -40. -50. -57. -62. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 2. 6. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 12. 17. 18. 18. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -10. -9. -10. -14. -18. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 26.4 75.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 40( 66) 35( 78) 34( 85) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 28 32( 51) 34( 68) 46( 83) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 127 126 125 123 122 122 120 121 120 116 112 109 18HR AGO 130 129 128 127 125 124 124 122 123 122 118 114 111 12HR AGO 130 127 126 125 123 122 122 120 121 120 116 112 109 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 118 117 117 115 116 115 111 107 104 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 110 110 108 109 108 104 100 97 IN 6HR 130 127 118 112 109 108 108 106 107 106 102 98 95 IN 12HR 130 127 126 117 111 107 107 105 106 105 101 97 94