* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 139 138 133 130 124 121 120 114 113 106 101 100 V (KT) LAND 140 139 138 133 130 124 121 120 114 113 106 101 100 V (KT) LGEM 140 139 136 133 130 126 123 117 113 110 101 92 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 12 13 10 12 12 14 15 17 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 0 0 0 -4 -6 -1 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 316 336 317 312 323 305 303 250 245 190 180 185 212 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.8 29.2 28.7 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 166 169 168 168 167 168 163 165 154 146 137 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 144 144 144 140 142 139 139 129 123 117 126 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.6 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 8 10 7 7 3 700-500 MB RH 62 64 67 63 64 68 62 62 56 50 43 41 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 25 28 30 34 35 35 38 37 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR 0 14 14 0 5 35 17 27 4 33 76 116 112 200 MB DIV 15 43 31 11 11 25 12 42 35 64 73 75 66 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -2 -4 -1 1 2 9 0 0 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 362 303 243 202 162 119 90 79 120 140 72 49 143 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 28.1 29.6 31.0 32.4 33.8 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.1 77.7 78.1 78.5 78.9 79.2 79.7 79.9 79.9 79.2 77.5 74.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 2 3 7 7 7 9 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 65 69 76 82 86 85 78 54 53 45 30 19 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -2. -3. -5. -11. -21. -35. -46. -57. -66. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -3. 0. 4. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 12. 15. 14. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -7. -10. -16. -19. -20. -26. -27. -34. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 26.5 76.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 584.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 50( 77) 43( 87) 36( 92) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 48 67( 83) 62( 93) 69( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 139 138 133 130 124 121 120 114 113 106 101 100 18HR AGO 140 139 138 133 130 124 121 120 114 113 106 101 100 12HR AGO 140 137 136 131 128 122 119 118 112 111 104 99 98 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 127 121 118 117 111 110 103 98 97 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 115 112 111 105 104 97 92 91 IN 6HR 140 139 130 124 121 118 115 114 108 107 100 95 94 IN 12HR 140 139 138 129 123 119 116 115 109 108 101 96 95