* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 64 70 77 85 87 84 81 75 69 66 59 V (KT) LAND 50 58 64 70 77 85 87 84 81 75 69 66 59 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 70 75 80 83 83 79 73 66 60 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 8 11 4 6 8 7 5 5 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 -3 0 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 241 251 273 303 306 297 284 253 265 180 185 152 233 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.4 25.7 24.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 158 157 145 142 141 137 127 120 112 101 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 67 66 64 62 58 55 52 47 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 18 20 23 24 24 26 24 23 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 0 11 14 14 12 20 55 64 55 42 24 200 MB DIV 28 55 60 45 37 36 21 41 12 17 -6 -6 4 700-850 TADV 3 5 3 -4 -5 0 -4 1 -2 4 0 -5 0 LAND (KM) 695 701 734 785 775 767 798 840 899 969 1066 1122 1236 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.3 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.4 112.4 114.3 115.7 117.1 118.7 120.1 121.7 123.5 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 23 25 24 11 10 12 7 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 13. 10. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 13. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 20. 27. 35. 37. 34. 31. 25. 19. 16. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.9 108.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.66 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.0% 52.9% 43.0% 35.4% 22.4% 50.1% 32.2% 10.3% Logistic: 38.2% 48.7% 37.7% 25.9% 19.0% 20.0% 10.4% 5.4% Bayesian: 25.4% 43.4% 22.2% 9.4% 5.6% 11.2% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 31.6% 48.3% 34.3% 23.5% 15.6% 27.1% 14.8% 5.2% DTOPS: 22.0% 47.0% 36.0% 30.0% 21.0% 30.0% 16.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##