* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 160 162 156 149 141 130 123 118 112 103 91 83 85 V (KT) LAND 160 162 156 149 141 130 123 118 112 103 91 83 85 V (KT) LGEM 160 159 154 146 141 132 126 120 116 110 99 91 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 14 11 14 10 13 10 16 19 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -1 1 -1 -4 -1 -5 0 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 325 314 311 322 324 281 268 260 185 196 179 207 206 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 168 168 168 168 164 161 157 149 138 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 144 144 143 141 138 136 132 126 118 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -49.7 -49.2 -49.5 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 64 65 67 62 61 56 52 45 42 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 28 28 30 32 34 37 38 39 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 0 1 25 11 25 -1 18 42 110 112 94 200 MB DIV 51 49 8 15 23 7 42 16 62 45 88 54 61 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 1 0 5 4 -4 3 -7 19 LAND (KM) 303 252 201 170 139 90 86 73 112 110 91 56 259 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.8 28.9 30.4 31.8 33.1 34.6 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.1 77.6 78.1 78.4 78.7 79.2 79.5 80.0 80.2 79.6 78.1 75.9 72.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 3 5 7 7 8 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 69 74 81 86 87 78 63 42 47 32 23 27 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -11. -19. -33. -50. -66. -81. -93.-101.-106. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -11. -6. 0. 4. 9. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -1. 1. -1. -1. -7. -8. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -4. -11. -19. -30. -37. -42. -48. -57. -69. -77. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 26.5 77.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 160.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -2.9 999.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -16.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 537.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 81 77( 96) 56( 98) 43( 99) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 96 96(100) 96(100) 85(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 162 156 149 141 130 123 118 112 103 91 83 85 18HR AGO 160 159 153 146 138 127 120 115 109 100 88 80 82 12HR AGO 160 157 156 149 141 130 123 118 112 103 91 83 85 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 142 131 124 119 113 104 92 84 86 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 130 123 118 112 103 91 83 85 IN 6HR 160 162 153 147 144 137 130 125 119 110 98 90 92 IN 12HR 160 162 156 147 141 137 130 125 119 110 98 90 92