* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 155 152 147 141 137 127 126 120 113 107 98 92 91 V (KT) LAND 155 152 147 141 137 127 126 120 113 107 98 92 91 V (KT) LGEM 155 150 144 139 134 128 123 116 110 103 94 85 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 10 10 16 12 9 14 17 25 23 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 1 0 -2 -7 -5 -2 -5 -2 -1 8 SHEAR DIR 314 313 321 320 307 292 257 237 188 180 191 208 215 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.5 28.9 28.7 28.0 26.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 167 167 167 160 159 149 147 138 120 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 144 141 142 141 136 134 125 124 118 104 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 -49.6 -50.0 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 7 8 2 3 700-500 MB RH 67 64 66 68 68 62 61 54 49 42 38 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 28 28 30 31 35 35 36 37 36 36 39 850 MB ENV VOR 21 6 7 27 32 17 27 3 35 68 109 119 110 200 MB DIV 43 14 12 29 18 14 38 28 65 69 68 75 73 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 2 3 6 1 -2 -4 0 36 LAND (KM) 242 192 142 131 121 73 65 77 89 77 42 72 289 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.2 28.2 29.4 30.7 32.2 33.8 35.6 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 78.2 78.7 78.8 78.9 79.4 79.9 80.3 80.5 79.5 77.6 75.1 71.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 1 2 4 6 7 7 10 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 75 83 86 86 84 72 47 38 38 30 19 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -30. -47. -62. -77. -89. -97.-103. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -13. -10. -5. 0. 4. 7. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -18. -28. -29. -35. -42. -48. -57. -63. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 155. LAT, LON: 26.6 77.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 155.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -11.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 513.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 77 74( 94) 49( 97) 41( 98) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 91 91( 99) 88(100) 74(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 155 152 147 141 137 127 126 120 113 107 98 92 91 18HR AGO 155 154 149 143 139 129 128 122 115 109 100 94 93 12HR AGO 155 152 151 145 141 131 130 124 117 111 102 96 95 6HR AGO 155 149 146 145 141 131 130 124 117 111 102 96 95 NOW 155 146 140 137 136 126 125 119 112 106 97 91 90 IN 6HR 155 152 143 137 134 128 127 121 114 108 99 93 92 IN 12HR 155 152 147 138 132 128 127 121 114 108 99 93 92