* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 66 69 78 81 79 77 72 66 60 56 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 66 69 78 81 79 77 72 66 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 61 64 69 72 74 71 65 59 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 10 9 7 8 7 6 2 5 2 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 3 -2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 289 312 324 312 336 302 292 309 244 301 284 267 227 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.7 25.9 24.9 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 154 147 142 142 139 130 123 112 103 101 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 66 65 64 62 60 55 52 48 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 23 22 25 27 26 26 25 22 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -2 8 15 10 5 3 14 44 45 29 17 3 4 200 MB DIV 54 51 42 17 24 23 31 13 15 -18 -10 3 0 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 3 -4 1 -3 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 723 766 766 747 744 782 837 885 948 1038 1130 1247 1396 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.4 21.3 22.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.1 112.1 113.0 113.9 115.5 116.9 118.3 119.6 121.3 123.6 125.8 128.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 24 20 13 10 12 10 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 9. 5. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 19. 28. 31. 29. 27. 22. 16. 10. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.1 110.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.66 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 29.7% 27.4% 21.2% 13.6% 23.8% 21.0% 8.6% Logistic: 4.9% 13.9% 5.8% 3.4% 1.6% 4.0% 3.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 16.0% 11.4% 8.3% 5.1% 9.4% 8.1% 3.4% DTOPS: 11.0% 52.0% 30.0% 19.0% 14.0% 30.0% 6.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##