* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 145 139 135 133 129 125 119 118 112 106 101 102 100 V (KT) LAND 145 139 135 133 129 125 119 118 112 106 101 102 100 V (KT) LGEM 145 138 133 129 127 124 118 114 111 105 94 89 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 11 11 14 8 14 9 15 19 26 31 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 0 -2 -4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 308 324 319 300 294 285 250 183 186 173 206 208 216 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.6 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 168 165 157 161 151 146 142 150 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 144 140 142 139 132 135 127 124 123 131 102 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -50.6 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -49.6 -49.8 -50.0 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 5 4 1 700-500 MB RH 64 66 68 68 64 63 56 54 45 40 42 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 28 29 33 33 37 37 37 36 39 44 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 27 27 15 18 -10 6 32 91 111 93 136 200 MB DIV 9 18 20 12 3 41 9 65 45 87 68 88 80 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 0 1 1 6 3 -3 1 -7 10 -1 LAND (KM) 202 166 131 115 100 79 50 97 123 87 66 209 317 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.6 28.6 29.8 31.2 32.6 34.2 36.2 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.5 78.8 79.0 79.1 79.5 80.1 80.2 80.0 78.7 76.5 73.5 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 2 5 6 6 8 10 14 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 82 86 86 83 81 65 38 45 38 29 22 42 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -13. -25. -40. -53. -66. -76. -82. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -11. -5. -1. 3. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 11. 11. 9. 13. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -16. -20. -26. -27. -33. -39. -44. -43. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 26.6 78.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 145.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 530.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 66 48( 82) 44( 90) 38( 94) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 62 64( 86) 58( 94) 51( 97) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 145 139 135 133 129 125 119 118 112 106 101 102 100 18HR AGO 145 144 140 138 134 130 124 123 117 111 106 107 105 12HR AGO 145 142 141 139 135 131 125 124 118 112 107 108 106 6HR AGO 145 139 136 135 131 127 121 120 114 108 103 104 102 NOW 145 136 130 127 126 122 116 115 109 103 98 99 97 IN 6HR 145 139 130 124 121 118 112 111 105 99 94 95 93 IN 12HR 145 139 135 126 120 116 110 109 103 97 92 93 91