* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 70 75 79 83 81 76 70 66 60 57 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 70 75 79 83 81 76 70 66 60 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 66 68 72 73 72 68 63 57 53 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 7 8 10 5 4 5 1 3 3 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 2 -1 1 -5 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 309 318 311 329 325 292 308 276 244 315 106 105 170 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.8 26.0 25.3 24.8 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 151 144 143 142 139 131 123 116 111 105 107 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 65 64 62 60 57 53 51 48 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 21 24 24 27 27 25 23 22 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 14 6 5 3 32 45 42 31 19 -5 -8 200 MB DIV 46 33 40 23 33 11 11 12 -20 -9 0 8 29 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -2 -6 2 -1 2 2 -5 0 -4 9 LAND (KM) 770 747 726 740 768 825 871 947 1062 1146 1260 1395 1546 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.4 22.2 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.4 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.7 118.1 119.5 121.3 123.2 125.3 127.4 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 9 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 16 10 9 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 8. 10. 9. 6. 4. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 28. 26. 21. 15. 11. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 111.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.62 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 39.0% 28.6% 21.9% 14.2% 23.3% 19.9% 7.2% Logistic: 12.1% 26.6% 12.8% 8.2% 4.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 23.2% 14.1% 10.1% 6.4% 9.3% 7.1% 2.6% DTOPS: 18.0% 50.0% 28.0% 19.0% 18.0% 28.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##