* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 133 129 126 124 121 118 112 109 98 94 98 98 V (KT) LAND 140 133 129 126 124 121 118 112 109 98 94 98 98 V (KT) LGEM 140 131 126 123 122 120 115 113 109 98 88 87 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 12 13 12 3 11 16 23 24 32 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -8 -3 0 -3 0 -2 6 0 SHEAR DIR 315 330 318 292 297 254 223 182 189 188 217 216 221 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.1 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 166 166 167 162 159 159 153 136 134 130 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 138 139 141 137 134 134 131 116 115 114 108 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -49.7 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.4 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 7 7 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 64 63 61 55 50 45 42 46 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 28 31 35 35 35 37 35 35 40 47 850 MB ENV VOR 13 24 28 17 14 22 -10 11 42 75 89 107 150 200 MB DIV 28 33 13 7 12 46 27 81 69 81 93 86 90 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 0 3 6 0 -3 -6 -3 18 16 LAND (KM) 191 171 152 134 121 98 115 142 110 62 88 319 308 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.2 28.1 29.3 30.5 32.1 33.8 35.3 37.3 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.4 78.6 78.8 78.9 79.5 79.8 79.9 79.0 77.3 75.0 71.7 67.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 12 14 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 80 80 80 78 76 56 48 56 38 19 9 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -13. -24. -38. -50. -62. -72. -78. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -9. -3. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 8. 5. 4. 11. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -28. -31. -42. -46. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 26.7 78.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 561.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 44( 74) 36( 84) 34( 89) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 70 73( 92) 53( 96) 40( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 133 129 126 124 121 118 112 109 98 94 98 98 18HR AGO 140 139 135 132 130 127 124 118 115 104 100 104 104 12HR AGO 140 137 136 133 131 128 125 119 116 105 101 105 105 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 128 125 122 116 113 102 98 102 102 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 118 115 109 106 95 91 95 95 IN 6HR 140 133 124 118 115 113 110 104 101 90 86 90 90 IN 12HR 140 133 129 120 114 110 107 101 98 87 83 87 87