* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 77 82 86 85 81 72 66 58 51 45 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 77 82 86 85 81 72 66 58 51 45 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 72 74 77 77 73 66 60 54 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 6 8 4 5 3 6 2 5 12 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 0 0 3 -1 2 0 0 -4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 320 306 325 329 318 292 249 201 281 108 166 168 192 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.4 26.3 25.4 24.8 24.5 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 144 142 142 142 137 126 117 111 108 106 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 64 63 58 54 51 48 47 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 23 24 25 26 26 23 22 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 6 2 1 16 44 52 41 24 5 -3 4 200 MB DIV 24 32 25 30 35 29 -1 6 -20 -15 12 24 34 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 -6 -4 4 2 1 -7 -4 1 3 7 LAND (KM) 751 736 737 754 783 831 876 993 1115 1192 1300 1461 1612 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.2 114.1 114.9 115.7 117.1 118.4 120.3 122.3 124.2 126.2 128.4 130.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 10 8 9 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 25. 21. 12. 6. -2. -9. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.5 112.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.63 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.8% 44.3% 32.3% 23.3% 15.2% 23.3% 19.4% 0.0% Logistic: 29.4% 42.7% 24.5% 17.3% 10.3% 12.6% 2.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 4.5% 10.3% 1.5% 0.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.9% 32.4% 19.4% 13.8% 9.1% 12.0% 7.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 29.0% 47.0% 33.0% 26.0% 19.0% 21.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##