* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 120 117 115 114 114 113 110 105 96 97 96 92 V (KT) LAND 125 120 117 115 114 114 113 110 105 96 97 96 92 V (KT) LGEM 125 118 114 113 114 114 112 112 104 92 86 82 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 18 12 10 8 14 15 26 26 41 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -4 -9 -6 -5 0 0 -3 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 324 299 283 290 285 242 177 181 171 210 202 218 218 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.9 28.8 25.7 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 166 167 165 159 155 152 144 137 152 116 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 140 140 135 131 128 122 118 133 103 84 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -49.4 -49.5 -48.9 -49.1 -49.3 -48.9 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 9 11 9 9 4 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 63 62 60 55 51 42 38 41 44 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 32 32 35 37 39 38 36 38 42 48 850 MB ENV VOR 29 34 24 18 20 4 8 24 89 99 87 124 166 200 MB DIV 40 20 1 14 44 20 62 38 90 58 88 110 107 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 0 0 7 2 -1 10 -10 10 10 40 LAND (KM) 170 150 129 106 93 79 91 140 81 44 225 320 153 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.5 28.6 29.9 31.2 32.7 34.4 36.3 39.0 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.6 78.8 79.0 79.3 79.8 80.3 79.8 78.7 76.5 73.3 69.1 64.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 8 10 14 19 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 80 80 79 75 67 45 43 43 26 16 57 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -16. -28. -38. -48. -55. -61. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -6. -3. 0. 2. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 6. 3. 6. 11. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -15. -20. -29. -28. -29. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 26.8 78.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 495.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 32( 58) 30( 70) 30( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 84 58( 93) 54( 97) 43( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 120 117 115 114 114 113 110 105 96 97 96 92 18HR AGO 125 124 121 119 118 118 117 114 109 100 101 100 96 12HR AGO 125 122 121 119 118 118 117 114 109 100 101 100 96 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 114 114 113 110 105 96 97 96 92 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 106 105 102 97 88 89 88 84 IN 6HR 125 120 111 105 102 98 97 94 89 80 81 80 76 IN 12HR 125 120 117 108 102 98 97 94 89 80 81 80 76