* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 76 79 82 79 73 66 61 54 49 43 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 76 79 82 79 73 66 61 54 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 74 75 75 71 65 59 52 46 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 8 8 5 3 3 5 2 2 8 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 2 -1 4 3 0 0 -1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 311 341 332 325 317 299 262 251 330 54 147 183 207 SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.9 24.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 146 142 141 143 140 136 123 115 107 102 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 65 64 60 56 53 50 46 47 46 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 22 23 25 24 23 21 20 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 17 8 4 -3 3 28 41 49 28 10 -6 -1 -7 200 MB DIV 39 43 42 39 -1 12 -6 0 -25 -19 9 26 16 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 -2 4 4 4 0 -7 -2 0 7 6 LAND (KM) 722 716 725 748 777 817 876 1000 1085 1179 1318 1499 1638 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 21.0 22.0 22.8 23.3 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.7 114.6 115.2 115.9 117.3 118.7 120.6 122.7 124.8 126.9 129.1 131.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 8 8 10 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 14. 17. 14. 8. 1. -4. -11. -16. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.0 112.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.69 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.5% 29.4% 27.8% 21.8% 14.2% 21.9% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 17.3% 24.3% 13.7% 8.7% 3.1% 6.8% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.2% 3.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.7% 19.0% 14.0% 10.3% 5.8% 9.6% 6.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 25.0% 41.0% 23.0% 17.0% 16.0% 12.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##