* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 121 118 117 120 117 117 109 104 101 99 96 82 V (KT) LAND 125 121 118 117 120 117 117 109 104 101 99 96 69 V (KT) LGEM 125 120 118 118 118 117 116 109 98 90 85 73 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 13 11 8 5 14 15 21 25 38 54 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -7 -8 -4 -1 -3 -2 1 7 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 286 277 291 275 252 184 162 177 194 221 216 216 207 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.0 27.4 27.1 20.8 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 165 164 159 159 156 137 132 130 87 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 140 140 139 135 134 132 117 116 116 80 76 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -49.4 -49.5 -48.9 -49.3 -48.8 -48.9 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 11 10 9 11 7 8 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 59 59 52 44 40 36 41 42 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 32 32 37 36 40 38 37 40 42 47 45 850 MB ENV VOR 31 24 24 22 33 -1 24 51 92 109 79 126 153 200 MB DIV 17 10 11 48 49 42 58 66 68 83 98 128 89 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 1 3 7 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -11 -45 LAND (KM) 170 154 139 128 122 108 153 125 59 76 374 249 -22 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.6 28.0 29.2 30.6 32.0 33.5 35.4 37.8 41.3 45.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.5 78.7 78.9 79.2 79.8 79.8 78.9 77.8 75.1 70.6 66.1 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 5 6 7 7 9 11 18 23 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 80 79 78 71 62 47 57 43 20 4 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -16. -27. -38. -48. -55. -62. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -3. -1. 1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 8. 6. 5. 8. 11. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -5. -8. -8. -16. -21. -24. -26. -29. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 26.8 78.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 548.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 3.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 32( 58) 33( 72) 32( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 85 67( 95) 72( 99) 44( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 121 118 117 120 117 117 109 104 101 99 96 69 18HR AGO 125 124 121 120 123 120 120 112 107 104 102 99 72 12HR AGO 125 122 121 120 123 120 120 112 107 104 102 99 72 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 118 115 115 107 102 99 97 94 67 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 103 103 95 90 87 85 82 55 IN 6HR 125 121 112 106 103 101 101 93 88 85 83 80 53 IN 12HR 125 121 118 109 103 99 99 91 86 83 81 78 51