* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 91 93 94 93 86 76 68 60 54 46 39 V (KT) LAND 80 87 91 93 94 93 86 76 68 60 54 46 39 V (KT) LGEM 80 87 90 90 89 84 76 67 59 51 44 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 7 4 6 3 8 5 5 5 19 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 3 3 2 5 1 3 0 3 4 4 SHEAR DIR 329 349 317 310 300 299 267 296 277 279 219 217 221 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.5 26.6 25.4 24.7 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 142 142 138 129 117 110 105 105 106 103 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 63 63 61 56 54 50 48 45 47 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 26 27 26 24 23 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 7 15 7 8 18 41 51 41 21 1 1 -4 -10 200 MB DIV 53 53 43 5 15 6 -5 -17 -30 -1 28 9 -19 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 4 5 1 2 -6 0 0 2 6 0 LAND (KM) 708 716 736 774 792 832 927 1013 1108 1256 1429 1549 1580 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.3 22.8 23.6 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.4 115.2 115.9 116.6 117.9 119.6 121.3 123.6 125.9 128.1 130.1 131.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 10 10 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 6. -4. -12. -20. -26. -34. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 113.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.75 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.2% 28.3% 27.6% 21.7% 14.3% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 28.3% 26.3% 21.2% 14.8% 4.5% 7.6% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.8% 19.1% 16.5% 12.3% 6.3% 9.6% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 32.0% 35.0% 21.0% 15.0% 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##