* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 100 104 106 108 105 100 93 93 97 93 76 V (KT) LAND 105 100 100 104 106 108 105 100 93 93 97 93 63 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 100 102 105 108 108 100 89 86 82 64 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 10 7 8 10 16 18 23 26 38 43 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -8 -6 -4 -4 0 -2 0 5 1 8 2 SHEAR DIR 280 287 286 234 247 151 165 166 206 215 223 212 219 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.7 28.2 28.1 26.7 18.4 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 165 162 162 163 159 147 141 141 125 80 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 139 138 138 137 134 126 122 123 112 75 71 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -49.7 -49.8 -49.2 -49.5 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.4 2.3 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 11 9 9 4 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 60 56 51 43 40 42 45 53 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 31 36 36 38 38 37 34 37 43 48 44 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 19 31 1 3 18 55 82 48 65 103 115 200 MB DIV -4 6 49 60 24 76 39 77 51 108 102 145 92 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 2 10 0 0 5 -10 7 9 -14 21 LAND (KM) 169 164 164 152 137 166 177 126 56 270 302 131 -16 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.2 27.4 28.0 28.5 29.9 31.3 32.8 34.7 36.8 39.4 43.1 47.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.5 78.5 78.8 79.2 79.5 79.2 78.0 75.8 72.7 68.5 63.8 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 6 6 7 8 11 15 18 24 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 80 78 76 65 59 61 53 32 20 35 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -41. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. 4. 12. 17. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -1. 1. 3. 0. -5. -12. -12. -8. -12. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.9 78.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 509.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.5% 10.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 3.9% 1.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.6% 4.4% 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 22( 43) 27( 58) 28( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 48 53( 76) 40( 85) 13( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 100 100 104 106 108 105 100 93 93 97 93 63 18HR AGO 105 104 104 108 110 112 109 104 97 97 101 97 67 12HR AGO 105 102 101 105 107 109 106 101 94 94 98 94 64 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 97 99 96 91 84 84 88 84 54 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 88 85 80 73 73 77 73 43 IN 6HR 105 100 91 85 82 82 79 74 67 67 71 67 37 IN 12HR 105 100 100 91 85 81 78 73 66 66 70 66 36