* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 97 100 101 102 100 94 90 94 94 85 68 V (KT) LAND 100 96 97 100 101 102 100 94 90 94 94 85 55 V (KT) LGEM 100 96 96 98 101 104 101 90 84 87 79 59 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 10 7 5 14 15 16 17 33 51 58 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -10 -8 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 3 5 5 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 288 280 245 227 162 159 171 171 226 216 224 212 213 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.2 28.0 27.9 27.2 24.0 18.3 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 162 161 163 154 137 138 130 103 80 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 134 138 137 137 129 116 120 116 93 75 71 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -49.6 -49.8 -49.3 -50.0 -49.8 -49.5 -48.9 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.6 2.7 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 10 7 8 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 54 52 47 42 39 41 45 48 40 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 35 36 36 38 38 34 34 40 46 47 44 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 30 3 -9 18 34 59 89 66 75 130 150 200 MB DIV 9 44 53 19 39 72 60 56 72 80 108 100 86 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 10 9 -1 0 -2 0 -1 4 1 -32 LAND (KM) 169 163 164 156 143 191 120 72 102 343 333 76 -102 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.5 29.1 30.6 32.1 33.5 35.1 37.5 40.6 44.3 48.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.5 78.7 79.0 79.3 79.4 78.8 77.5 74.9 71.3 66.7 61.8 56.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 7 8 8 11 16 21 25 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 90 88 89 78 61 65 40 21 16 11 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -15. -21. -26. -32. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 2. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 0. 8. 15. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -3. 0. 1. 2. 0. -6. -10. -6. -6. -15. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 27.1 78.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.53 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 560.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.1% 10.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 6.0% 4.1% 3.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 20( 38) 23( 52) 24( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 16( 29) 8( 34) 1( 35) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 97 100 101 102 100 94 90 94 94 85 55 18HR AGO 100 99 100 103 104 105 103 97 93 97 97 88 58 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 100 101 99 93 89 93 93 84 54 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 92 90 84 80 84 84 75 45 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 82 80 74 70 74 74 65 35 IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 77 75 69 65 69 69 60 30 IN 12HR 100 96 97 88 82 78 76 70 66 70 70 61 31