* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 111 109 104 94 82 70 58 51 45 39 34 V (KT) LAND 110 113 111 109 104 94 82 70 58 51 45 39 34 V (KT) LGEM 110 113 111 105 99 86 73 63 53 45 39 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 4 4 2 6 4 6 2 7 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 1 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 311 294 280 279 276 174 272 336 329 325 259 246 255 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.0 25.7 25.3 24.4 23.7 24.3 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 140 139 133 120 116 107 99 105 106 103 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 59 60 54 52 49 45 41 39 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 27 27 27 25 24 20 19 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 9 19 33 43 45 22 -4 -17 -21 -28 -33 200 MB DIV 31 16 29 5 -8 -4 -25 -14 -16 -15 -2 -18 -7 700-850 TADV 0 7 5 3 -1 -1 -5 -4 0 2 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 715 740 768 788 814 878 987 1062 1161 1317 1495 1595 1669 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.3 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.4 116.0 116.7 117.4 119.0 120.8 122.7 124.8 127.0 129.1 131.0 132.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 8 9 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -11. -20. -29. -38. -46. -53. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -1. -6. -16. -28. -40. -52. -59. -65. -71. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.2 114.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 631.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 5.3% 5.9% 3.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 5.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##