* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 96 99 100 98 92 88 87 87 84 74 56 V (KT) LAND 95 94 96 99 100 98 92 88 87 87 84 74 46 V (KT) LGEM 95 94 96 99 101 101 93 84 83 82 70 53 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 5 10 19 18 18 22 44 49 68 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -9 -4 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 7 -3 8 0 2 SHEAR DIR 266 240 229 193 147 169 172 212 212 225 216 214 213 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.2 27.7 28.4 27.0 23.6 17.1 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 159 161 156 139 135 146 128 100 77 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 136 136 137 130 118 117 129 113 89 72 68 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -49.7 -49.8 -49.4 -49.6 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -48.8 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.2 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 11 9 9 5 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 55 52 51 43 39 40 44 52 48 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 36 38 37 37 34 34 35 41 46 47 44 850 MB ENV VOR 16 28 3 -9 0 9 51 74 40 59 96 131 160 200 MB DIV 51 59 21 40 66 34 63 47 95 84 127 101 58 700-850 TADV 0 3 11 10 0 0 8 -3 2 -6 12 -2 -92 LAND (KM) 149 161 166 159 159 148 94 42 277 345 170 15 61 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.1 28.6 29.3 30.0 31.5 32.9 34.4 36.5 39.0 42.3 46.0 50.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 78.8 78.9 79.3 79.6 79.4 78.4 76.6 72.7 68.4 64.2 59.7 54.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 8 8 7 10 15 20 22 24 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 89 90 75 61 64 41 22 14 52 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -6. -13. -18. -23. -29. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -1. 6. 11. 12. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 4. 5. 3. -3. -7. -8. -8. -11. -21. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 27.5 78.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.11 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 522.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 16.7% 12.9% 11.6% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 8.9% 5.3% 4.1% 2.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 9.0% 6.2% 5.3% 4.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 14.0% 11.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/03/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 19( 33) 22( 48) 21( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 3( 8) 1( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 94 96 99 100 98 92 88 87 87 84 74 46 18HR AGO 95 94 96 99 100 98 92 88 87 87 84 74 46 12HR AGO 95 92 91 94 95 93 87 83 82 82 79 69 41 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 84 78 74 73 73 70 60 32 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 74 68 64 63 63 60 50 22 IN 6HR 95 94 85 79 76 74 68 64 63 63 60 50 22 IN 12HR 95 94 96 87 81 77 71 67 66 66 63 53 25