* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 99 100 100 97 93 88 86 86 81 75 58 V (KT) LAND 95 96 99 100 100 97 93 88 86 86 81 61 40 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 98 100 100 97 89 84 84 80 68 45 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 5 13 17 15 10 18 32 44 55 67 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -5 -3 -4 4 5 10 2 5 0 2 SHEAR DIR 238 233 179 139 156 173 177 241 214 228 212 219 215 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.7 27.9 27.2 27.7 27.0 18.4 15.4 9.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 159 159 159 146 136 128 136 129 80 74 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 135 135 133 122 117 111 120 116 75 70 67 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -49.8 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 2.2 1.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 11 10 7 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 55 53 50 46 41 39 43 45 49 49 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 37 36 36 35 34 33 36 41 45 48 45 850 MB ENV VOR 22 -4 -9 4 14 24 55 79 61 79 121 156 172 200 MB DIV 48 22 46 64 60 57 53 50 78 89 105 93 65 700-850 TADV 2 11 10 -1 0 0 -5 7 -12 -9 -2 -9 -114 LAND (KM) 162 133 116 139 146 96 70 55 304 315 85 -54 214 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.7 29.2 30.0 30.7 31.9 33.3 35.2 37.0 39.9 44.1 48.1 51.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.2 79.7 79.8 79.9 79.7 78.1 75.4 72.1 67.5 62.2 57.1 52.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 6 8 12 15 20 26 28 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 90 68 50 58 53 29 20 5 25 17 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -14. -19. -25. -31. -37. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 0. 6. 11. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -7. -9. -9. -14. -20. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.1 78.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.11 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 598.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 17.7% 13.5% 11.7% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 5.8% 4.1% 2.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 8.0% 6.2% 4.8% 3.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 22( 49) 20( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 5( 10) 1( 11) 0( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 99 100 100 97 93 88 86 86 81 61 40 18HR AGO 95 94 97 98 98 95 91 86 84 84 79 59 38 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 92 89 85 80 78 78 73 53 32 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 82 78 73 71 71 66 46 25 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 73 69 64 62 62 57 37 16 IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 76 72 67 65 65 60 40 19 IN 12HR 95 96 99 90 84 80 76 71 69 69 64 44 23