* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 99 95 92 83 73 63 55 48 41 36 30 V (KT) LAND 105 102 99 95 92 83 73 63 55 48 41 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 95 90 84 72 62 53 45 38 33 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 2 2 3 1 6 0 8 16 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 5 2 2 0 0 -3 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 269 262 259 273 190 231 51 338 114 247 247 248 240 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 25.9 25.2 24.5 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 139 135 122 115 108 99 102 106 105 103 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 61 58 59 57 55 53 50 46 45 40 38 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 27 27 26 23 21 20 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 5 23 35 45 50 44 25 -4 -18 -24 -28 -33 -45 200 MB DIV 33 12 -15 -18 -7 -10 -12 -21 -24 4 -1 2 -6 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 6 0 8 6 6 LAND (KM) 763 769 780 808 847 947 1001 1118 1253 1410 1525 1636 1779 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.4 23.6 23.6 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.5 117.0 117.9 118.7 120.4 122.2 124.3 126.3 128.2 129.7 131.5 133.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -29. -37. -44. -50. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -22. -32. -42. -50. -57. -64. -69. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.8 115.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 674.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING