* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 96 95 92 87 82 81 78 76 66 56 46 V (KT) LAND 95 96 96 95 92 87 82 81 78 76 66 47 37 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 96 95 94 87 80 79 79 72 55 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 15 20 21 14 12 25 42 44 53 67 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -6 -1 0 0 3 8 5 9 8 7 7 SHEAR DIR 208 162 138 152 159 168 250 234 226 221 213 219 216 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.3 27.7 28.2 26.4 23.6 17.4 13.2 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 159 159 152 140 134 142 122 100 78 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 133 132 127 118 116 124 108 91 74 69 68 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -49.9 -49.7 -49.9 -49.6 -49.9 -50.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.9 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 10 8 10 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 50 47 45 40 39 43 46 51 51 52 53 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 37 36 35 33 31 34 38 43 43 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 4 15 11 49 70 25 54 81 121 148 197 200 MB DIV 42 50 68 62 38 51 32 69 98 103 113 86 75 700-850 TADV 12 11 -1 3 0 8 -4 11 -5 16 21 24 -125 LAND (KM) 141 147 136 152 130 57 45 176 331 223 43 11 432 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.5 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.7 34.2 36.1 38.4 41.5 45.5 49.5 53.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.6 79.9 79.8 79.8 79.0 77.1 73.9 70.1 65.3 60.0 54.7 49.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 9 14 18 22 26 27 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 66 57 58 55 36 23 15 22 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -21. -27. -34. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -4. -7. -10. -12. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -5. -1. 5. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -14. -17. -19. -29. -39. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.8 79.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 701.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 16.2% 12.3% 10.5% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.5% 4.9% 3.8% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 19( 33) 13( 42) 10( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 2( 10) 1( 11) 0( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 96 95 92 87 82 81 78 76 66 47 37 18HR AGO 95 94 94 93 90 85 80 79 76 74 64 45 35 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 87 82 77 76 73 71 61 42 32 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 82 77 72 71 68 66 56 37 27 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 71 66 65 62 60 50 31 21 IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 74 69 68 65 63 53 34 24 IN 12HR 95 96 96 87 81 77 72 71 68 66 56 37 27