* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 87 84 80 73 66 56 48 40 36 31 30 V (KT) LAND 95 90 87 84 80 73 66 56 48 40 36 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 78 73 63 55 47 40 34 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 2 3 5 1 2 8 4 3 9 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 3 1 4 0 0 -1 4 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 269 257 273 174 162 122 275 347 336 319 259 282 251 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.7 25.5 25.0 24.1 23.7 24.3 24.5 24.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 130 118 113 104 99 105 107 104 105 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 59 60 57 56 52 51 46 42 38 35 33 31 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 26 25 24 22 19 17 15 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 10 25 33 44 45 37 16 -12 -16 -20 -19 -39 -27 200 MB DIV 16 0 -10 -3 7 -2 -13 -35 -27 -31 -22 -11 0 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 0 -5 -4 -1 0 4 5 8 11 LAND (KM) 764 779 803 830 867 968 1039 1163 1331 1490 1603 1726 1881 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.9 117.6 118.4 119.2 121.0 123.0 125.1 127.2 129.0 130.7 132.6 134.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -23. -30. -36. -41. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -15. -22. -29. -39. -47. -55. -59. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.9 116.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.82 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 643.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.18 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 14.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##