* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 75 73 69 63 55 47 40 34 30 27 27 V (KT) LAND 85 80 75 73 69 63 55 47 40 34 30 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 77 71 66 62 53 46 40 34 29 26 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 1 3 4 2 0 4 3 4 7 9 9 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 0 2 2 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 291 161 147 193 322 332 337 332 300 297 249 247 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.5 23.5 23.8 24.5 24.6 24.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 124 118 110 108 97 100 107 108 107 111 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 53 53 50 45 41 39 35 35 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 24 25 24 23 20 19 16 14 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 26 37 44 44 34 18 -11 -26 -24 -22 -26 -41 -31 200 MB DIV 1 -7 -7 -14 -7 -6 -33 -43 -20 -16 -7 -8 11 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 0 -5 1 -5 3 -1 5 5 9 10 LAND (KM) 767 779 800 840 888 943 1032 1194 1363 1541 1673 1805 1947 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.5 118.2 119.0 119.8 121.5 123.5 125.7 127.6 129.5 131.4 133.4 135.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -30. -33. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -22. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -12. -16. -22. -30. -38. -45. -51. -55. -58. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.3 116.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 588.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##