* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 35 44 51 60 65 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 28 35 44 51 60 65 65 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 31 34 37 38 37 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 1 3 4 9 10 14 17 11 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 7 4 1 5 7 3 3 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 213 215 218 210 84 86 357 343 335 5 358 354 350 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 155 158 158 153 152 152 154 156 155 155 155 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 59 60 62 69 70 71 69 66 67 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 10 12 13 15 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 8 11 9 16 33 28 33 16 5 -17 -15 200 MB DIV 69 74 82 80 63 61 51 55 63 46 18 25 48 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 1 4 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 1683 1605 1541 1490 1446 1391 1367 1344 1295 1166 1013 849 729 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.3 12.9 12.5 12.2 11.4 10.6 9.9 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.3 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.2 142.1 142.9 143.6 144.9 146.0 147.2 148.5 150.2 152.2 154.8 157.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 10 11 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 21 22 22 22 32 39 37 36 46 52 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 6. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 10. 19. 26. 35. 40. 40. 41. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 140.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 23.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 27.1% 19.0% 11.2% 2.2% 7.9% 1.4% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 17.5% 14.3% 3.7% 0.7% 10.3% 8.4% 2.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##