* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 89 88 85 81 78 79 68 54 35 16 V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 89 88 85 81 78 79 58 39 24 DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 90 89 87 86 82 80 82 75 49 36 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 23 16 11 11 22 39 52 61 58 48 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -1 0 2 2 7 3 5 1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 152 168 175 174 169 262 227 225 213 208 201 217 226 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.8 27.3 20.2 18.7 12.9 10.5 9.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 143 141 137 132 125 132 84 80 72 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 128 119 116 115 113 110 118 78 75 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.4 -49.5 -49.9 -49.8 -48.4 -48.6 -48.7 -48.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.8 2.5 3.0 3.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 8 7 10 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 44 39 39 38 40 43 53 50 55 50 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 34 36 35 34 35 38 47 47 45 36 28 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 3 20 37 61 70 74 98 139 170 206 233 200 MB DIV 48 45 44 58 55 33 75 96 107 84 71 95 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 6 -5 4 -3 0 -6 -92 -72 -82 LAND (KM) 155 156 115 93 62 34 108 333 192 -26 -22 406 977 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.9 31.5 32.0 32.5 34.0 35.9 38.3 41.8 45.6 49.6 53.3 56.6 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.8 79.9 79.5 79.2 77.5 74.7 70.3 65.9 61.3 56.2 49.8 41.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 8 12 18 23 25 26 27 28 28 HEAT CONTENT 57 47 28 26 22 15 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -9. -15. -22. -30. -36. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -13. -17. -22. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 3. 13. 13. 10. -2. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -11. -21. -36. -55. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.2 79.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.04 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 708.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 15.3% 11.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 5.0% 5.2% 3.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 6.8% 5.8% 4.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 11( 30) 10( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 88 89 88 85 81 78 79 58 39 24 DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 89 88 85 81 78 79 58 39 24 DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 86 83 79 76 77 56 37 22 DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 76 72 69 70 49 30 15 DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 64 61 62 41 22 DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 68 64 61 62 41 22 DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 88 79 73 69 65 62 63 42 23 DIS DIS