* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 79 75 71 63 54 45 38 34 30 28 25 V (KT) LAND 85 81 79 75 71 63 54 45 38 34 30 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 70 66 56 48 40 34 30 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 1 1 2 7 1 3 7 4 12 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 2 4 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 294 238 127 156 259 292 349 19 219 246 253 220 238 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.3 23.6 24.1 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 124 118 115 112 106 98 103 111 111 111 112 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 52 51 47 44 40 38 37 35 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 23 25 25 23 21 19 16 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 36 37 34 29 12 -19 -20 -27 -12 -28 -30 -23 200 MB DIV -13 -5 -6 -12 -2 -13 -35 -28 -31 -12 -5 6 -8 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 -6 -4 1 -2 1 4 1 5 2 4 LAND (KM) 821 842 872 917 963 1016 1131 1277 1452 1629 1773 1913 1971 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.8 22.5 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.4 22.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.3 119.1 119.9 120.7 122.6 124.6 126.5 128.4 130.2 132.0 134.0 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -33. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -18. -20. -23. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -10. -14. -22. -31. -40. -47. -51. -55. -57. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.2 117.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.4 19.6 to 1.6 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 630.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 4.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##