* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 35 41 47 51 58 59 59 57 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 35 41 47 51 58 59 59 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 34 34 34 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 3 0 4 2 4 5 7 7 14 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 8 4 0 4 5 5 4 9 6 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 218 223 261 67 154 217 233 252 300 250 279 247 264 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 157 157 157 155 153 153 149 154 152 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 60 58 60 59 58 55 54 54 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 13 15 15 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 11 12 15 34 35 36 35 30 11 31 27 200 MB DIV 68 82 84 63 50 65 63 49 18 26 5 27 45 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -2 -1 -4 0 0 7 10 19 16 7 LAND (KM) 1650 1586 1524 1477 1431 1326 1219 1071 852 631 489 542 722 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 141.0 141.8 142.6 143.2 143.7 144.9 146.1 147.8 150.1 152.6 155.6 159.1 163.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 6 7 10 12 14 16 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 22 22 22 21 20 18 33 61 61 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 22. 26. 33. 34. 34. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 141.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.86 7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 33.1% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% 40.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.4% 69.0% 57.4% 44.7% 11.0% 28.2% 4.1% 12.3% Bayesian: 3.3% 5.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 35.9% 28.7% 15.1% 3.7% 18.3% 14.8% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/04/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##