* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 98 96 92 85 80 78 69 51 35 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 100 98 96 92 85 80 78 69 42 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 102 99 94 89 83 85 81 62 45 33 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 18 15 12 16 33 46 54 73 58 43 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 1 3 3 11 5 7 -1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 166 171 166 173 204 253 216 222 210 204 204 218 224 SST (C) 29.2 28.6 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.2 24.6 18.5 15.4 7.9 10.2 9.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 144 137 135 133 130 130 107 80 74 68 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 120 114 113 112 112 115 96 75 71 67 67 67 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.5 -49.7 -50.0 -50.2 -49.1 -47.9 -48.2 -47.7 -47.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.0 3.3 3.4 3.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 9 9 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 39 38 40 39 43 48 52 51 53 54 57 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 37 37 36 34 38 44 47 43 40 33 28 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 23 42 40 78 49 91 143 164 186 223 238 200 MB DIV 43 47 63 54 36 66 71 116 118 86 101 92 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 8 -1 11 -3 0 10 -29 -84 -36 -57 LAND (KM) 158 122 62 60 39 24 266 268 15 -13 189 680 1218 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.7 32.4 33.0 33.6 35.1 37.4 40.4 44.5 48.7 52.7 55.7 57.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.6 79.4 78.8 78.1 75.9 72.3 67.7 63.2 58.4 53.0 46.3 38.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 15 21 25 26 27 26 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 46 29 21 18 16 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -23. -33. -43. -52. -58. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -16. -21. -26. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 0. 8. 11. 6. 1. -9. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -20. -22. -31. -49. -65. -82. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.0 79.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 829.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 4.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 13.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.3% 1.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 13( 46) 10( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 98 96 92 85 80 78 69 42 30 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 97 95 91 84 79 77 68 41 29 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 90 83 78 76 67 40 28 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 79 74 72 63 36 24 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 74 69 67 58 31 19 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 78 73 71 62 35 23 DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 100 98 89 83 79 74 72 63 36 24 DIS DIS