* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 42 47 52 59 59 57 55 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 42 47 52 59 59 57 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 34 34 33 31 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 5 5 4 3 6 3 10 11 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 2 -2 0 1 6 1 8 7 5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 249 264 82 126 122 19 281 308 291 260 260 269 290 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 154 156 155 153 152 153 155 154 152 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 60 62 63 62 60 59 56 59 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 11 15 24 44 38 41 29 17 7 6 -13 200 MB DIV 72 76 64 59 84 91 56 27 18 25 23 41 34 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 0 2 6 13 18 12 3 LAND (KM) 1674 1609 1546 1506 1469 1359 1218 1063 834 635 546 600 707 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.1 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 141.1 141.9 142.7 143.3 143.8 145.2 146.7 148.5 151.2 154.0 156.7 159.7 162.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 11 14 14 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 21 21 22 23 23 38 52 52 64 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 22. 27. 34. 34. 32. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 141.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.88 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.9% 26.2% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 37.1% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 54.0% 36.3% 24.9% 4.9% 31.9% 12.3% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 27.9% 20.9% 8.3% 1.6% 19.0% 16.5% 5.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##