* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 97 94 89 83 76 71 60 43 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 100 97 94 89 83 76 71 55 39 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 101 97 92 88 84 84 70 52 38 31 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 16 13 15 26 41 52 65 58 53 47 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 4 2 9 1 3 0 2 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 168 174 175 202 238 221 227 213 207 208 217 224 236 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.6 28.1 26.4 20.4 15.6 8.4 10.3 9.2 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 136 132 132 141 122 86 76 68 68 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 115 111 113 124 109 80 72 67 66 67 68 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -49.8 -49.6 -49.5 -49.9 -49.9 -50.2 -49.0 -48.6 -49.1 -48.2 -47.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 8 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 40 41 42 41 45 53 53 57 50 57 60 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 36 36 34 37 40 45 46 43 36 31 24 850 MB ENV VOR 3 20 38 41 64 48 60 119 136 144 228 238 219 200 MB DIV 53 80 63 32 31 89 89 99 113 96 124 89 46 700-850 TADV 0 -1 3 -2 1 2 6 0 44 -66 -74 -86 -54 LAND (KM) 144 103 86 55 52 173 303 123 35 66 442 934 1513 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.2 32.9 33.6 34.2 36.2 38.8 42.4 47.5 51.8 54.8 57.0 58.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.1 78.5 77.8 77.0 73.9 69.9 65.4 59.6 54.6 49.7 42.8 33.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 12 18 23 29 30 24 21 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 36 27 20 16 13 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -25. -35. -46. -54. -61. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -16. -20. -26. -29. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -1. 1. 6. 8. 4. -7. -15. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -24. -29. -40. -57. -78. -92.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.4 79.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 831.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 2.7% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 20( 38) 11( 44) 9( 49) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 97 94 89 83 76 71 55 39 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 96 93 88 82 75 70 54 38 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 88 82 75 70 54 38 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 85 79 72 67 51 35 DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 75 68 63 47 31 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 79 72 67 51 35 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 100 97 88 82 78 71 66 50 34 DIS DIS DIS